According to The Kobeissi Letter, despite the announcement of a US-China trade deal and a 90-day pause on tariffs, the 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.50% even as inflation data trends downward (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 11, 2025). Persistent high yields signal that interest rates remain elevated, which continues to pressure both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies. Crypto traders should monitor bond yields closely, as sustained high rates can reduce risk appetite and liquidity in digital asset markets. The expectation for rate cuts remains unmet, increasing volatility and downside risk across crypto assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, despite the announcement of a US-China trade deal and a 90-day pause on tariffs, US 10-year Treasury yields are approaching 4.50% while inflation data shows a decline. The persistent high yields indicate that interest rates remain elevated, which is unfavorable for President Trump’s economic agenda that depends on lower rates (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 11, 2025). For crypto traders, continued high yields may limit capital inflow into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, as investors seek better returns in traditional fixed income markets. Monitoring bond yields is critical for assessing future crypto market momentum.

According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), the weekly market analysis and 'Chart of the Week' published for May 12, 2025, highlight critical macroeconomic trends and price movements across major assets. The report examines equities volatility and interest rate shifts, directly influencing Bitcoin and altcoin sentiment as traders adjust crypto portfolios in response to stock market signals. The Kobeissi Letter notes recent S&P 500 fluctuations and bond yields as factors impacting crypto asset flows, underlining the need for active risk management and close monitoring of cross-market correlations. Source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, May 11, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the weekly market analysis and Chart of the Week for May 12th provide essential insights into stock market trends, interest rate movements, and macroeconomic indicators, all of which hold significant implications for cryptocurrency traders. The Kobeissi Letter highlights the interplay between equity volatility and digital asset price action, noting that recent macroeconomic uncertainty is contributing to increased crypto market volatility (Source: @KobeissiLetter, May 11, 2025). Traders should closely monitor correlations between traditional markets and major cryptocurrencies, as outlined in the published report, to better inform their trading strategies.

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 228,000, beating the consensus estimate of 230,000 and down from the previous 241,000. This better-than-expected labor data points to continued resilience in the U.S. economy, which could delay potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. For cryptocurrency traders, this reduces the likelihood of immediate dollar weakness, potentially limiting near-term bullish momentum for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Source: Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly, May 8, 2025).

According to @psarofagis, $BIL has significantly outperformed $AGG over the past five and ten years, offering similar yields with less risk, as confirmed by increasing fund flows into $BIL (source: Eric Balchunas on Twitter, May 7, 2025). With current interest rates, traders are shifting from $AGG to $BIL for fixed-income exposure in 60/40 portfolios. This defensive move reduces risk and liquidity concerns, which can drive more capital into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as traditional bond allocations become less attractive. Crypto traders should watch for increased flows into crypto as investors seek higher returns outside traditional fixed income.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), market consensus and expert forecasts indicate no interest rate cut is expected from the Federal Reserve today, with most analysts pricing in a hold decision. Mihir notes a personal preference for a 0.25% rate cut, but this is not reflected in current market expectations (source: Twitter, May 7, 2025). For crypto traders, a rate hold may maintain current levels of dollar strength and liquidity, potentially limiting upside momentum for Bitcoin and altcoins in the short term. Traders should watch for any unexpected dovish signals from the Fed, as an unexpected cut could trigger a rapid risk-on rally in major cryptocurrencies.

According to @Zac_Pundi, Polymarket traders currently assign a 98.2% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates at the May 2025 FOMC meeting, with only 1.6% expecting a 25 basis point increase (source: @Zac_Pundi on Twitter, May 7, 2025). For crypto traders, this strong consensus suggests that major volatility tied to U.S. monetary policy is unlikely in the near term. Stable rates are generally interpreted as neutral-to-positive for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as they keep liquidity conditions unchanged. Market participants should monitor any unexpected FOMC commentary, as even small surprises can trigger rapid crypto price movements.

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), the upcoming FED meeting on Wednesday is widely expected to result in no rate cut, a move that aligns with current market pricing and recent guidance from Federal Reserve officials (source: Michaël van de Poppe on Twitter, May 5, 2025). For crypto traders, this signals continued macroeconomic pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as higher interest rates generally limit upside momentum. However, a surprise rate cut would likely trigger a strong bullish reaction across digital assets due to improved liquidity conditions and shifting investor expectations. Traders should closely monitor the FOMC statement and press conference for forward guidance, as any dovish shift could provide actionable signals for short-term trading strategies.

According to Crypto Rover, Donald Trump has reiterated his stance that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, a move widely regarded as bullish for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market due to the increased appeal of risk assets in a low-rate environment (source: Crypto Rover, Twitter, May 4, 2025). Traders are closely watching for potential Fed policy changes, as lower rates typically drive higher liquidity and can fuel upward momentum for digital assets.

According to Crypto Rover (@rovercrc), former President Donald Trump has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rates, a move widely interpreted as super bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Market participants view rate cuts as supportive of higher asset prices, with historical data indicating positive momentum for crypto markets when monetary policy eases (source: Crypto Rover Twitter, May 2, 2025). Traders are watching for potential increased inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins, anticipating possible rallies if the Fed responds to political pressure.

According to Crypto Rover, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June has surged to 60% based on CME's FedWatch tool, signaling a potentially bullish outlook for cryptocurrency markets as lower interest rates can drive risk asset inflows (source: Crypto Rover on Twitter, May 1, 2025). This shift in rate expectations may lead to increased volatility and upward momentum for Bitcoin and altcoins, making it a key factor for crypto traders to monitor closely.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, commodities markets have been pricing in a potential US recession over the past two months, which is reflected in sustained downward price trends. This ongoing movement suggests traders are anticipating that a recession could be the primary driver for sustainably lower interest rates, which may impact asset allocation and trading strategies across commodities, equities, and crypto markets. The analysis highlights the importance for traders to monitor macroeconomic signals and commodity price action when planning positions, as persistent weakness in commodities often precedes shifts in monetary policy and risk appetite (source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 30, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US job openings fell by 288,000 in March 2025 to 7.2 million, marking the second-lowest level since January 2021 and missing analyst expectations of 7.5 million. The decline was led by sectors such as construction, transportation, private education, and real estate (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, April 30, 2025). This weaker-than-expected labor market data may influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, potentially increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates are often bullish for both traditional equities and cryptocurrencies, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding risk assets and can trigger capital inflows into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets. Traders should monitor the FOMC's forthcoming statements and market reactions for potential volatility in crypto and stock indices in response to continued weakness in US employment metrics.

According to Michael Howell (@crossbordercap), the upcoming live session on April 30th will provide actionable analysis on the global liquidity and debt crisis, specifically examining why interest rates are no longer the primary driver of financial markets and how liquidity flows directly influence market cycles. Traders should pay close attention to Howell’s discussion on liquidity trends, as these are increasingly impacting crypto asset volatility and price action, providing key signals for short-term and swing trading strategies (source: Michael Howell @crossbordercap, Twitter announcement).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the median US monthly housing payment has reached a record $2,819, marking a 2.5% increase year-over-year. Over the past three years, payments have surged by approximately $570 per month, representing a 25% rise. This increase is attributed to escalating median home prices and rising interest rates, influencing the housing market dynamics significantly.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the median US monthly housing payment has risen by 2.5% year-over-year, reaching a record $2,819 per month. This marks a significant increase of $570, or 25%, over the past three years, attributed to escalating median home prices and rising interest rates, impacting mortgage affordability.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, there is an 85% chance that no rate cut will occur in May, despite President Trump's calls for lower rates. Fed Chair Powell has indicated a lack of urgency in adjusting rates, influencing market sentiment and impacting trading strategies.

According to Miles Deutscher, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes reflect a consistent hawkish tone for three consecutive months. This steadfast approach by the Federal Reserve suggests that interest rates may remain elevated, impacting cryptocurrency market liquidity and volatility. Traders should monitor these developments closely as a potential pivot could signal significant market shifts.

According to Crypto Rover, former President Trump has reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to decrease interest rates, suggesting the potential for increased money supply. This announcement could influence cryptocurrency markets as lower interest rates might lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, potentially driving investors towards digital assets like Bitcoin. [Source: Crypto Rover]